Lookalike audiences are only as good as their seed, and win-backs only as good as their timing. Ask a model trained on your own customers, and it comes back with cleaner seeds, the lapsing customers worth bringing back, and the moment to reach them.
1deposit_recencyThis use caseBring Lapsing players back before 90 days, and seed acquisition from the best Active ones.
2ngr_bandGrow net gaming revenue after bonus cost, not deposits alone.
3deposit_frequencyTurn Occasional depositors into Regulars, within responsible-gaming limits.
Channels
Email
SMS
App push
Meta
Google
Affiliates
CRM / Lifecycle
Use case briefPublished
GoalGrow direct bookings and new members
KPIs, in priority order
1booking_channelThis use caseShift bookings from OTAs to direct, and seed paid acquisition from the best direct bookers.
2club_tierEnrol first-time and OTA guests in Aurora Club.
3trips_bandTurn one-trip guests into two-trip guests.
Channels
Meta
Google
Metasearch
Email
App push
Affiliates
CRM / Lifecycle
Every use case starts with a brief like this one.
The action plan
The plays that grow the base.
An example run for Nordvale Gaming, a Neuralift demo brand: an online casino and sportsbook. Four of its nine ranked actions are acquisition and win-back plays, and every one leaves out players with responsible-gaming limits. Step through them and the map lights up the segments each one reaches.
Read the segments by
Segments14
Players173,100
On this lensdeposit_recencyngr_banddeposit_frequency
24%23%25%28%
Lapsed
Lapsing
Cooling
Active
22%43%25%
Negative
Low
Mid
High
26%37%28%
One-off
Occasional
Regular
Frequent
Weekend Sportsbook Parlays
Danny
Representative customer
24,800 players · 14.3%
12%Lapsed
18%Lapsing
30%Cooling
40%Active
10%Negative
48%Low
32%Mid
10%High
6%One-off
40%Occasional
44%Regular
10%Frequent
What sets them apart
Build parlays for the weekend's fixtures in the app.
Deposit on Friday, settle by Monday.
Steady net revenue at small stakes.
Welcome-Bonus Churners
Brody
Representative customer
21,600 players · 12.5%
52%Lapsed
26%Lapsing
14%Cooling
8%Active
46%Negative
40%Low
12%Mid
2%High
70%One-off
24%Occasional
5%Regular
1%Frequent
What sets them apart
Joined for the welcome bonus, cleared it and left.
Bonus cost exceeds their play.
Today's seed lists are full of them.
Big-Event Sports Bettors
Cal
Representative customer
19,300 players · 11.1%
34%Lapsed
30%Lapsing
24%Cooling
12%Active
14%Negative
52%Low
28%Mid
6%High
22%One-off
58%Occasional
18%Regular
2%Frequent
What sets them apart
Bet the big events: finals, the Super Bowl, March Madness.
Quiet between seasons by design.
Calendar-led, not churned.
Small-Stakes Daily Spinners
Pat
Representative customer
16,200 players · 9.4%
6%Lapsed
14%Lapsing
30%Cooling
50%Active
20%Negative
58%Low
18%Mid
4%High
4%One-off
20%Occasional
46%Regular
30%Frequent
What sets them apart
Short daily sessions at minimum stakes.
Low value, very loyal.
Watched closely for responsible-gaming signals.
Free-Spin Only Players
Jess
Representative customer
14,900 players · 8.6%
44%Lapsed
30%Lapsing
18%Cooling
8%Active
58%Negative
34%Low
7%Mid
1%High
64%One-off
28%Occasional
7%Regular
1%Frequent
What sets them apart
Play only when free spins land.
Rarely deposit their own money.
A cost to manage, not a seed.
Cross-Sell Casino Curious
Erin
Representative customer
13,400 players · 7.7%
10%Lapsed
20%Lapsing
32%Cooling
38%Active
12%Negative
44%Low
34%Mid
10%High
8%One-off
38%Occasional
44%Regular
10%Frequent
What sets them apart
Sportsbook players who open the casino tab but don't play.
Browse the lobby after a bet settles.
A cross-sell one tap away.
New Players, First Month
Ali
Representative customer
12,600 players · 7.3%
4%Lapsed
10%Lapsing
30%Cooling
56%Active
26%Negative
48%Low
20%Mid
6%High
52%One-off
36%Occasional
10%Regular
2%Frequent
What sets them apart
Joined in the last 30 days, two deposits or fewer.
The first two weeks decide whether they stay.
Onboarding moves them, not offers.
Payday Depositors
Kev
Representative customer
11,800 players · 6.8%
10%Lapsed
22%Lapsing
40%Cooling
28%Active
16%Negative
50%Low
28%Mid
6%High
4%One-off
64%Occasional
28%Regular
4%Frequent
What sets them apart
Deposit once a month, just after payday.
Play it through in a few days.
Predictable and easy to time.
High-Value Slot Regulars
Vera
Representative customer
9,600 players · 5.5%
4%Lapsed
8%Lapsing
20%Cooling
68%Active
2%Negative
8%Low
30%Mid
60%High
2%One-off
10%Occasional
44%Regular
44%Frequent
What sets them apart
Online slots most evenings, depositing weekly.
Profitable after every bonus.
The seed for lookalike acquisition.
Multi-App Switchers
Tara
Representative customer
9,100 players · 5.3%
28%Lapsed
36%Lapsing
26%Cooling
10%Active
22%Negative
44%Low
26%Mid
8%High
30%One-off
48%Occasional
18%Regular
4%Frequent
What sets them apart
Hold accounts with three or more operators.
Follow the week's best odds boost.
Lapse when a rival runs a promotion.
Lapsing Live-Dealer Players
Leon
Representative customer
8,700 players · 5.0%
20%Lapsed
48%Lapsing
24%Cooling
8%Active
8%Negative
26%Low
42%Mid
24%High
8%One-off
36%Occasional
44%Regular
12%Frequent
What sets them apart
Live blackjack and roulette players whose sessions have thinned.
Deposits down by half in six weeks.
Still log in to watch the tables.
Esports Bettors
Jin
Representative customer
4,400 players · 2.5%
18%Lapsed
24%Lapsing
30%Cooling
28%Active
16%Negative
46%Low
30%Mid
8%High
12%One-off
44%Occasional
36%Regular
8%Frequent
What sets them apart
Bet esports and little else.
Younger, mobile-only, late at night.
A seed for a new audience.
Lapsed Former VIPs
Harriet
Representative customer
3,900 players · 2.3%
64%Lapsed
22%Lapsing
10%Cooling
4%Active
6%Negative
14%Low
32%Mid
48%High
10%One-off
30%Occasional
38%Regular
22%Frequent
What sets them apart
High-value players with no deposit in three months.
Most left after a host change or a payment problem.
Worth more than any new player.
Responsible-Gaming Cool-Offs
Ray
Representative customer
2,800 players · 1.6%
70%Lapsed
20%Lapsing
8%Cooling
2%Active
20%Negative
40%Low
28%Mid
12%High
24%One-off
40%Occasional
28%Regular
8%Frequent
What sets them apart
Players who set deposit limits or took a break.
Left out of every offer, by design.
Shown so the plays can exclude them.
Nordvale Gaming, a Neuralift demo brand, in an illustrative run: the segments and figures are examples. Hover a segment to see what sets it apart.
Action 01 of 09Protects margin
Seed lookalikes from profitable regulars, not bonus churners
impact: high
effort: low
confidence: strong
~1.9Kest. players who join from the new lookalikes and deposit twice
Reaches 13,500 players · 8% of the base
A third of today's seed list are bonus churners
34%of the current seedvs0%of the new seed
Who
Players profitable after bonus cost for six months, excluding anyone with RG limits
Offer
A seed list refreshed each Reading for Meta and Google lookalikes, churners suppressed
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
Action 02 of 09Margin neutral
Catch lapsing live-dealer players with the table they left
impact: high
effort: low
confidence: good
~$178Kest. incremental value
Reaches 6,000 players · 3% of the base
They still log in to watch the tables
3.4lobby visits a week, no depositvs0.6fully lapsed players
Who
Live-dealer players with deposits down by half in six weeks, still logging in
Offer
A reserved seat at their usual table and dealer, with no bonus attached
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
Action 03 of 09Protects margin
Time sports win-backs to each player's own calendar
impact: medium
effort: low
confidence: good
~2.4Kest. players who bet the next big event
Reaches 10,700 players · 6% of the base
Their lapses follow the season, not dissatisfaction
89%return for the next finalvs41%other lapsed players
Who
Sports bettors whose last bet was a final or a major event
Offer
A reminder a week before their event, with the market they bet last time and no boost
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
Action 05 of 09Protects margin
Win back former VIPs through a host, not a bonus
impact: high
effort: high
confidence: good
~$661Kest. incremental value
Reaches 2,900 players · 2% of the base
Most left after a host change or a failed payment
62%had a host change or failed paymentvs18%other lapsed players
Who
High-value players with no deposit in 90 days, outside any RG limit
Offer
A call from a named host, the payment issue fixed, and no bonus
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
01 / 04
The action plan
The plays that bring guests direct.
An example run for Aurora Air, a Neuralift demo brand: an international airline, briefed to grow direct bookings and new members. Four of its eight ranked actions are acquisition plays: step through them and the map lights up the segments each one reaches.
Read the segments by
Segments14
Guests1,933,000
On this lensclub_tierbooking_channeltrips_bandancillary_band
56%21%19%
Blue
Silver
Gold
Polaris
44%56%
OTA
Direct
34%36%18%
1
2–3
4–9
10+
26%41%32%
None
Low
High
Holiday Return-Trip Families
Megan
Representative customer
312,000 guests · 16.1%
78%Blue
16%Silver
5%Gold
1%Polaris
44%OTA
56%Direct
38%1
52%2–3
10%4–9
0%10+
10%None
40%Low
50%High
What sets them apart
Book a return trip for four each summer, months ahead.
Bags, seats together and meals: the most extras per booking.
Book direct to keep the family seated together.
OTA Fare Hunters
Kieran
Representative customer
284,000 guests · 14.7%
92%Blue
7%Silver
1%Gold
0%Polaris
88%OTA
12%Direct
62%1
32%2–3
6%4–9
0%10+
58%None
36%Low
6%High
What sets them apart
Find Aurora on a metasearch site and book the lowest fare.
Rarely join the club, and never add extras.
Most of the base's distribution cost sits here.
Weekday Business Commuters
Graham
Representative customer
226,000 guests · 11.7%
12%Blue
30%Silver
38%Gold
20%Polaris
18%OTA
82%Direct
0%1
6%2–3
40%4–9
54%10+
20%None
46%Low
34%High
What sets them apart
Fly the same two or three business routes, out Monday, back Thursday.
Book direct through the corporate tool.
The lounge and fast track decide their airline.
Northern Lights Adventurers
Freya
Representative customer
198,000 guests · 10.2%
70%Blue
22%Silver
7%Gold
1%Polaris
36%OTA
64%Direct
52%1
40%2–3
8%4–9
0%10+
18%None
44%Low
38%High
What sets them apart
Fly north for aurora season: Tromsø, Reykjavik, Rovaniemi.
Book tours and packages around the flight.
Winter travellers, back season after season.
Visiting-Family Flyers
Amara
Representative customer
176,000 guests · 9.1%
80%Blue
15%Silver
4%Gold
1%Polaris
54%OTA
46%Direct
30%1
58%2–3
12%4–9
0%10+
40%None
48%Low
12%High
What sets them apart
Fly home to family two or three times a year.
Book when fares drop, close to the holidays.
Carry-on only, seat chosen at check-in.
Golds Nearly Polaris
Daniel
Representative customer
128,000 guests · 6.6%
0%Blue
8%Silver
82%Gold
10%Polaris
10%OTA
90%Direct
0%1
4%2–3
48%4–9
48%10+
8%None
42%Low
50%High
What sets them apart
Gold for years, a few flights short of Polaris every year.
Fly the long-haul routes on business.
Answer status challenges.
Lapsing Former Golds
Patricia
Representative customer
104,000 guests · 5.4%
16%Blue
52%Silver
30%Gold
2%Polaris
30%OTA
70%Direct
44%1
46%2–3
10%4–9
0%10+
24%None
52%Low
24%High
What sets them apart
Held Gold until a job change; now fly twice a year.
Still open every Aurora Club email.
Drifting to a rival's hub.
Premium Cabin Leisure Couples
Henri
Representative customer
96,000 guests · 5.0%
40%Blue
34%Silver
22%Gold
4%Polaris
28%OTA
72%Direct
24%1
60%2–3
16%4–9
0%10+
4%None
20%Low
76%High
What sets them apart
Fly business class for one big trip a year, economy otherwise.
Pay cash, not points, and add the lounge.
The highest fare per trip in leisure.
Points Redemption Planners
Owen
Representative customer
88,000 guests · 4.6%
10%Blue
40%Silver
40%Gold
10%Polaris
12%OTA
88%Direct
10%1
46%2–3
40%4–9
4%10+
30%None
52%Low
18%High
What sets them apart
Plan trips around award seats.
Fly most of their trips on points.
Watch the points balance more than the fare.
Student and Gap-Year Backpackers
Lily
Representative customer
82,000 guests · 4.2%
90%Blue
9%Silver
1%Gold
0%Polaris
70%OTA
30%Direct
40%1
46%2–3
14%4–9
0%10+
64%None
32%Low
4%High
What sets them apart
One-way fares, flexible dates, the cheapest seat.
Book through student travel sites.
Next decade's business travellers.
Connecting Long-Haul Transit Guests
Ravi
Representative customer
74,000 guests · 3.8%
62%Blue
24%Silver
12%Gold
2%Polaris
72%OTA
28%Direct
48%1
42%2–3
10%4–9
0%10+
22%None
48%Low
30%High
What sets them apart
Connect through the Aurora hub on the way somewhere else.
Book through partner airlines or OTAs.
A stopover away from a second trip.
Bleisure Weekend Extenders
Sofia
Representative customer
66,000 guests · 3.4%
8%Blue
32%Silver
44%Gold
16%Polaris
16%OTA
84%Direct
0%1
14%2–3
56%4–9
30%10+
12%None
40%Low
48%High
What sets them apart
Turn a Friday meeting into a weekend away.
Move the return flight and add a hotel.
A partner often flies home with them.
Ski Season Groups
Tom
Representative customer
58,000 guests · 3.0%
74%Blue
20%Silver
5%Gold
1%Polaris
40%OTA
60%Direct
46%1
48%2–3
6%4–9
0%10+
6%None
24%Low
70%High
What sets them apart
Fly to the mountains in groups of six to ten, every winter.
Sports equipment on every booking.
One organiser books for the whole group.
First-Time Flyers
Grace
Representative customer
41,000 guests · 2.1%
96%Blue
4%Silver
0%Gold
0%Polaris
52%OTA
48%Direct
100%1
0%2–3
0%4–9
0%10+
46%None
42%Low
12%High
What sets them apart
A first flight with Aurora in the last six months.
Haven't joined Aurora Club.
The second trip decides whether they stay.
Aurora Air, a Neuralift demo brand, in an illustrative run: the segments and figures are examples. Hover a segment to see what sets it apart.
Action 01 of 08Margin neutral
Seed lookalikes from direct-booking families, not fare hunters
impact: high
effort: low
confidence: good
~6Kest. guests who seed a lookalike that books direct
Reaches 120,000 guests · 6% of the base
A direct family is worth four fare hunters
$1,240a year per direct familyvs$310per OTA fare hunter
Who
Direct-booking families and weekend extenders with extras on every trip
Offer
A lookalike seed for Meta and Google built from them, with OTA fare hunters left out
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
Action 02 of 08Margin neutral
Bring OTA bookers direct on their second booking
impact: high
effort: low
confidence: good
~7.7Kest. guests who book direct next time
Reaches 96,000 guests · 5% of the base
The second booking is where they switch
3×direct rebooking after a member farevs1×without
Who
Guests who booked through an OTA and flew in the last 60 days
Offer
Member fares after the trip, with seat selection free when they book direct
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
Action 03 of 08Margin neutral
Make first-time flyers members before their second trip
impact: high
effort: low
confidence: good
~6Kest. guests who join Aurora Club and book again
Reaches 30,000 guests · 2% of the base
The second trip decides it
64%fly again once they've joinedvs22%if they don't
Who
Guests on their first Aurora flight who haven't joined the club
Offer
Join at check-in with this flight's points backdated, and a route they searched in the welcome email
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
Action 06 of 08Margin neutral
Offer transit guests a stopover in the hub city
impact: medium
effort: medium
confidence: moderate
~1.6Kest. guests who book a stopover trip
Reaches 26,000 guests · 1% of the base
They already spend hours at the hub
3.2 hon the ground at the hubvs0.4 heveryone else
Who
Guests connecting through the hub on the way somewhere else
Offer
A free stopover of up to three nights in the hub city on their next booking
Suggested vs observedSuggested Treated
01 / 04
Why it's different
Beyond the one-line seed.
Most lookalike seeds are a SQL filter: the top ten percent by deposits. That pulls in bonus churners and one-off whales, and the ad platform dutifully finds more of them. Neuralift seeds from the customers who are profitable over time, segment by segment, and refreshes the list every Reading.
A one-line seed
select player_id
from players
where deposits_90d > p90;
seed sizebonus churners
18,40034%
Big depositors, including the ones who leave after the bonus.
The new seed leaves out bonus churners and every player with responsible-gaming limits, so the platform learns from profitable players only.
Each segment can seed its own lookalike, so creative and offers match who you're actually finding.
Seed listsSuppressionLookalikesHoldoutsAn example view on the Nordvale Gaming demo run.
Find more of your best
Lookalikes seeded from customers who are profitable over time, not from whoever deposited most last quarter.
Stop paying to acquire churners
Suppress the bonus-led and one-off customers before they reach the seed, and keep vulnerable customers out entirely.
Win back on their calendar
Reach lapsing customers when their own pattern says they're ready, with the thing they came for, not a blanket bonus.
Why it's different
Beyond the one-line seed.
Most lookalike seeds are a SQL filter: the top ten percent by bookings. That pulls in OTA fare hunters and one-off bookers, and the ad platform dutifully finds more of them. Neuralift seeds from the guests who are valuable over time, segment by segment, and refreshes the list every Reading.
A one-line seed
select guest_id
from bookings
where trips_12m >= 3;
seed sizeOTA bookers
212,00041%
Frequent bookers, including the ones who only ever come through an OTA.
A Neuralift view
A seed built from segments
Holiday Return-Trip Families38%core seedBleisure Weekend Extenders22%core seedNorthern Lights Adventurers18%includedOTA Fare Hunters14%suppressedStudent and Gap-Year Backpackers8%own seed
The new seed leaves out OTA fare hunters, so the platform learns from guests who book direct and add extras.
Each segment can seed its own lookalike, so creative and offers match who you're actually finding.
Seed listsSuppressionLookalikesHoldoutsAn example view on the Aurora Air demo run.
Find more of your best
Lookalikes seeded from guests who are valuable over time, not from whoever booked most last quarter.
Stop paying for OTA bookers
Suppress the fare hunters who'll never book direct before they reach the seed.
Win back on their calendar
Reach lapsing guests when their own pattern says they're ready, with the trip they came for, not a blanket sale.
Horizontal by design
Your model. Any question.
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Our team is always happy to talk through your customer data challenges and opportunities. We usually respond within a day, and we love helping teams see what their customer data can tell them.
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